Misao Well, you do acknowledge that's a very unlikely th12 scenario.
I think you either didn't really read my or understand my point there.
The very unlikely scenario was there to showcase how much zeny the actual tha12 map could theoretically generate.
I made that scenario to show the very big difference in zeny generation compared to the suggested new map.
AKA "best case zeny generation in tha12" vs "my avg expected zeny generation on the suggested new map"
Ofcourse was that scenario exaggerated (becasue usually u have an avg of 2 people there) but that exaggerated calculation was to favor the position of the suggested new map in the zeny generation comparison.
U see, 220m (avg tha12 generation) vs 1100m (my avg for the suggested map) sounds even worse right?
Misao Only a few people farm that amount of zeny relative to the total players who farm there.
Where do u get that info from? Nearly every player I meet there while farming make atleast 90-100m/hr (in a maximum of 2 player scenarios). And I was quite often there lately.
Misao It's not always full of people
Yeah and I never said that (because its on avg 1-2 people). That's actually also a minus for the new suggested map. Because when it's not full there very often, why make another map?
As mentioned above, the scenario if pictured where tha12 is full of people was just to calculate the expected maximum zeny generation of tha12 for a better comparison with the new suggested map.
Misao A lot of people don't go there because they can't 1 shot the monsters or get knocked back by Dark Thunder (and NOT because of the competition)
Again, where do u get that info from? Also, your statements seem too reflect a very casual stance. A very low percentage of the playerbase that put some thought in the spot they want to farm shouldn't be able to farm tha12. But i know a lot people who prefer to farm CTB/NIF2/PIT over tha12 because of the mentioned competition, KS and other reasons. Those would with very high chance change to the new suggested map.
I also have a very casual friend, who plays maybe 3-5hrs/week and he can farm thana but mostly prefers to farm snakes nest, because he doesnt want to compete with mages in tha12.
Sidenote, tha12 is pretty easily farmable with very low equipment requirements (illusion equipment and glacier weapon, im looking at you) and easy counter measures (bathory card, guyak pudding, sp pots).
Sidenote 2: ALL those point are pretty irrelvant for my statement becasue what i showcased was the amount of zeny generation that is actually possible through tha12 and is already available ingame.
Misao It's supposed to be hard so you can't really say people will 'easily farm'. The entrance barrier will be higher, way less people would farm there. It would mean only the more endgame players will have access to that zeny, which I don't see as a bad thing (a new endgame goal/reward).
Again, naive. What is supposed to be hard? Constellation Tower is supposed to be the hardest content in the game, but because the gear progression on this server is very fast, it is easily farmed by a good amount of people right now (numbers increasing). Nebula equipment (the best equipment in game) is spread far and wide and materials are easily obtainable if you invest a few hours of farming. Those people who farm every day (also most likely the people who add the most zeny to the server) are most of the time either pretty well or even fully geared. Those people should be easily able to farm the map and they would. They aren't endgame players for no reason (reason being very efficient and active farmers).
Misao You say that players wouldn't split but at the same time you imply everyone will go farm there. Again I don't think everyone in the server makes 140M/h in th12, not even half the server, not even 10%. Look at the active players at any given time, 160 online players. Do you ever see that many players in the floor? Or even throughout the day? And of those people only a fraction make that much (or even 80M).
Again where do u take that information from? Don't reflect from your experience on the regular tha12 farmers. Let's take the last 7 days (because that's where i was pretty actively checking tha12, so i have actual intel on that). Every time tha12 was occupied by 1-2 people, they would all run on guyak (and bathory) and clear the map pretty fast(around my speed). So getting a bare minimum of 80-90m (using bbg) can be confidently assumed.
Misao This suggestion would not create new people out of thin air. The idea of equating this new farming map to generating new zeny is nonsense. Again, you said it yourself: people will move from CTB/NIF/etc. to this new map (and th12).
I never claimed that people would be created out of thin air. The people that farm tha12 are rotating alot (see my piint on competition), so there's potentially alot people who would join the new map instead.
Nif2/CTB/PIT don't even generate a fraction of the raw zeny that a tha12 equivalent map would produce. So if those people move (and they would most likely) there will be much more raw zeny generated.
Again basic math: 1hr effiecient NIF2 farm: 14m raw zeny vs 1hr efficient tha12-like map 140m/hr that's factor 10 more zeny generated.
Misao And on top of all, this is a good thing. If you read in fact the suggestion they mention how these maps don't always see profit from how competitive they are right now (Bloody Branches 800k????).
I don't know where u are taking this price from but market price was always atleast around 1m besides a few 1day dips(looking at you vending history). If people decide they need to rush those Bloody Branches in #trade and sell them for very cheap prices (like you mentioned), that's their fault. I mean there are even buying shops with 900K/ea.
Misao Having people move to a raw zeny farming map would mean these other dungeons will be more profitable, which means mid game players will have a chance to make more zeny while the endgame people can farm the new map and buy from them.
That point is highly speculative, we already have a lot of wealthy end game players out there, but they try to buy the goods as low as possible (look at the players in #trade who want to buy BB for <1m).
Misao Also since th12 will be less crowded, early game players can have more of a chance there (if they really fear the competition as you say).
Well i'd expect those who can farm the new map (+those from other maps) will move while those who can't stay in thana until they can move.
So now we have 2 maps that possibly generate alot raw zeny instead of 1. Exactly my point.
Misao Overall I feel like your conclusions don't really match you analysis. I don't see a new influx of zeny happening, maybe in the short term yes because everyone will be hyped to try the new map, which again is the opposite of what you're concluding
I think you just want to project your own view or are too naive to see that the active farming players (those who add a big part to the server economy) will always chose to join a profitable place (considering possible zeny gain / competition and the convenience to have instant raw zeny).
If the map really features zeny gain of same or more than tha12, with a more comfortable and stable farming experience (less competition), they will stay. I mean look at the popular farming places, why do we see on avg more people in NIF2/CTB/EP19 dungeons compared to tha12? Because the maps still offer decent zeny on a bigger map with more mobs which results in less competition. The downside is that the items need to be sold so there's no instant profit. If we now get a convenient map that offers the pro's of the before mentioned big maps and the pro of getting instant raw zeny, that would make that map way more attractive than any other map.
Misao With that said I also like the idea of improving existing maps, but it would probably create the opposite effect. I'm realizing we might be in a situation where people who buy stuff would benefit from this, while people who sell stuff would benefit from the alleged 'inflation'.
I don't see the point here? It's not even said how the other maps would be improved. Sure if you just add some already common drops (zelunium, shadowdecon) which would be the cheap and easy way, the prices may or may not drop. I mean as you said, people won't appear from thin air, so the people farming there would move from other maps with said drops, so the overall increase probably wouldn't be significant. On the other hand we maybe could think of ways to improve existing maps so that those materials don't get touched.
Misao My personal take is always that the server shouldn't be geared towards building a market. The market adapts to whatever the players need and decide to farm. Their gameplay experience is what comes first and foremost. It baffles me there can barely be a suggestion here without people going 'but muh market!!!' (no pun intended)
Welp, I never said anything about the "market", but adding (potentially alot) more raw zeny generation to a server was, and will never be healthy. Atleast as long as we don't get more heavy zeny sinks. But again that wouldn't be in favor of casual and new players.
MY CONCLUSION:
1st scenario:
Everything stays mostly the same, some high end geared efficient farmers switch from their respective preferred farming map (NIF2/CTB/PIT/whatever) to the new map and farm there. > increase in zeny generation because those maps only generate a fraction of the raw zeny compared to the new map.
Tha12 will mostly stay the same cause those players who want raw zeny but can't farm the new map will still farm tha12.
Result 1st scenario: Raw zeny from tha12 + raw zeny from new map > more overall zeny generation
2nd scenario:
The new map is so attractive that everyone who can farm it will switch to the new map (from maps like NIF2/CTB/PIT/whatever which dont generate much raw zeny) and everyone who can't tries to get there asap. > very big increase in raw zeny generation
Tha12 stays either the same
OR Since mid players can now profit more from selling drops of NIF2/CTB/PIT/whatever (because all end game farmers are now farmign zeny) they will farm there and tha12 is free for new players & casual. > price increase for all materials & still zeny generation via tha12
Result 2nd scenario: way more raw zeny generation and rising material prices, which make purchasing them for casual and new players harder because they (probably) can't farm tha12 very efficient.
I can probably think of more scenarios but in the end they all result in more raw zeny generation OR they render the implementation of a new map useless.
You mentioned earlier that tha12 isn't always full of people. And that's also my observation. Often times theres only 1 player and just sometimes 2 or more. SO WHY DO WE NEED ANOTHER MAP (that will come with problems and work for the GMs)? There's no justified reason.
This will also be my last post on this thread. I think i made my point clear and i wont dwell further on this topic.